North India is set to witness intense monsoon activity over the next 48 hours, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall across Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Himachal Pradesh on August 11 and 12. The spell has been triggered by the convergence of a low-pressure system over Madhya Pradesh with an incoming Western Disturbance, creating conditions for widespread showers, thunderstorms, and potential cloudbursts in hilly regions.
Multiple Weather Systems Trigger Rain Surge Across the Region
According to weather officials, the current rainfall spell is the result of several atmospheric systems acting together over north and central India rather than a single weather event.
A cyclonic circulation linked to the low-pressure area over Madhya Pradesh currently extends up to an altitude of 5.8 km and is gradually moving toward the northern part of the state. At the same time, forecasters are tracking a fresh cyclonic circulation forming in the northwest Bay of Bengal, which is expected to intensify into a new low-pressure area around August 12.
Adding to this, the monsoon trough is positioned further south than its typical seasonal track, a shift that is drawing moisture-laden winds deep into the northern plains and strengthening the rainfall outlook for the region.
Western Disturbance to Intensify Rainfall Over Delhi-NCR
Meteorologists point to an upper-level Western Disturbance currently positioned over northwest India as a key factor behind the expected intensity of rain in the capital region. This system is interacting with tropical moisture moving in from the plains, and the resulting clash between the mid-latitude disturbance and the monsoon flow is likely to trigger rapid cloud build-up over Delhi-NCR, western Uttar Pradesh, and eastern Rajasthan within the next two days.
Landslide and Cloudburst Warnings Issued for Hill States
Hill states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, face heightened risk during this weather spell. A localised cyclonic circulation over the southeastern part of the state has raised concerns over flash floods, landslides, and disruptions to traffic on mountain routes.
Compounding this risk, an atmospheric shear zone running along roughly 22°N latitude through central India is altering regional wind patterns, a shift expected to further fuel thunderstorm and cloudburst activity across the affected belt.
Residents across Delhi-NCR, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Himachal Pradesh have been advised to stay alert to official IMD updates and exercise caution while travelling, particularly in hilly and low-lying areas, over the next two days.